Approximately a year ago, we started to realise how small we are. No weapons, no politics, not even the brightest doctors were able to avoid COVID-19 starting to rule the world. Now, 12 months later, we have, more or less accepted a new way of life. Maintaining a social distance, shops closed, air travel decimated. In some countries, a curfew is now as normal as eating and drinking.
With vaccine programs being rolled out, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Or… is it just a lamp, at the start of a new one? Too pessimistic?
Many people are unemployed. Governments have been paying huge amounts of money to keep businesses alive. Smart move, but were does the money come from? Bang! Not from the companies they are trying to save, nor from a roaring economy. Unsurprisingly they lend the money. Loans are temporary and must be repaid.
When this epidemic is under control, governments will have to raise taxes to pay their debts. Higher tax rates for both workers and companies will let you pay more for everything you buy. But there is more. People have been saving money. As soon as most of the restrictions are gone, people will like to spend money. More demand = higher prices.
There is a big question mark. Is industry capable of keeping up with increased demand? Factories have been forced to gear down, maintenance of planes postponed, and key personnel have been made redundant. How quickly can the economy pick-up? It’s called a Supply CHAIN: the weakest link will determine the pace.
Most companies will have to face many questions, with no visibility on how it all will evolve. Historical data does not provide any answers. From our current standpoint, we would more than welcome these challenges, but it seems sure that there will be another battle down the road, once the fight against COVID-19 is over.
The Starship Enterprise was prepared for the unknown. Standards and procedures were in place, so Captain Kirk and his team could focus on the unknown challenges ahead. What about your organization?
We don’t have a crystal ball, nor do we have a magic wand. But we do know how to setup a responsive organization, driven by data and accountable staff. Together with your team, we can secure the backbone of your organization. Creating structure and flexibility in your supply chain, ready to face the unknown.
Do you think this picture is too pessimistic? Or do you want to discuss the options? Please let us know!